Saturday, 15 December 2018

338Canada Projection Update: December 16th 2018

We add to the projection the Forum poll published last Sunday and the Nanos update (here is the full list).


You can access those projections by region:


This 338Canada Projection includes the following political parties: the Liberal Party of Canada, the Conservative Party of Canada, the New Democratic Party, the Green Party of Canada, the Bloc québécois, and the People's Party of Canada.

Here are the regional breakdowns per party:





While it is legitimate to wonder whether last week's Nanos numbers fluctuated this drastically because of noisy data (especially the 28 point swing in Ontario between Libs and Tories), Forum's numbers were inline with what Forum has been measuring all throughout 2018.

Here are all the federal polls of 2018, with Forum's polls indicated by a black arrow:


So there is a clear trend in Forum's numbers: they tend to favour conservatives more than any other firm on the field in Canada.

That being said, I do not discard Forum's numbers entirely. However, the 338Canada model automatically gives a poll lesser weight in its calculation if it is seen as an outlier (said poll would regain its due weight if it is later confirmed by other polls).

And so here is the popular vote projection for December 16th 2018:

The most significant swing this week is the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives closing by an average of 1.6 point. The Liberals are still heavy favourites, but as you can see on the chart below, the confidence intervals are now overlapping:



Here is the seat projection. The threshold of majority at the House of Commons is 170 seats.




You can also view the interactive map of the projection by clicking the following image:




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Thursday, 13 December 2018

Rachel Notley's NDP Is In Trouble

The Calgary based firm ThinkHQ published an Alberta poll last week and it confirmed the trends that other pollsters have measured over the better part of 2018 - at least since the merger between the PC and the Wildrose.

According to this poll, the United Conservative Party has a substantial lead over Rachel Notley's NDP:


In fact, the UCP leads by double digits in Calgary and in every other region of Alberta.

Only in Edmonton is the NDP still leading in voting intentions - but by a narrower margin than the 2015 general election results. In 2015, the NDP received over 60% of the vote in greater Edmonton and this polls only measures 47% of support for the governing party (and 36% for the UCP).

I am working on an Alberta model which should be ready this spring. To be continued.


* * *

This poll was conducted November 21st to 26th 2018 with an online panel and has a sample size of 1 102 potential Alberta voters.


Here is the ThinkHQ poll report.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.