The splintering of the right in Alberta

When Mainstreet Research released its latest Alberta poll in May showing the Wildrose Independence Party in third place with 17 per cent of voting intentions province-wide, some eyebrows were understandably raised. Could it be that Jason Kenney's right flank was splintering off his United Conservative Party, a narrative ominously similar to the one that doomed the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta only six years ago? Or could it simply have been a statistical outlier? Back in March, Viewpoint Alberta and Janet Brown Opinion Research had measured WIP support at four and six percent, respectively. The Wildrose had not even figured in Léger's survey of the province.

Lo and behold, the new round of provincial polling from the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) confirmed Mainstreet's recent upward trend for the Wildrose. According to ARI's Alberta numbers, Rachel Notley's NDP leads with 41 per cent of voting intentions. Jason Kenney's United Conservatives take second place with 30 per cent, and the Wildrose jumps to 20 per cent in the province.

Read this column here.

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For more details on this Alberta projection, visit the 338Canada Alberta page. Find your home district on this page, or use the regional links below:

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à