338Canada federal update | Feb. 14, 2021

Here a is brief 338Canada federal update for Valentine's Day, 2021. As usual, you will find all federal polls on this page. For the regional breakdown of those polls, click the links on the purple tabs.

One regional poll is missing from this list: A Quebec-only federal poll that will be released next Thursday. Since I already have the results (but can't show them yet), I figured the honest thing would be to include it right away. I mention it here and now for the sake of transparency.

Here is this week's national popular vote projection:

The seat projection is highly similar to the 2019's results:

The Liberal and Conservative seat density probability curves do overlap, but the regional break down does still give a massive edge to the Liberals. As I mentioned in my last Maclean's column, the Conservatives still haven't made gains where they need to. Fortunately for Erin O'Toole and the CPC, the events/debacle of the Newfoundland and Labrador election have probably reduced the odds of a spring federal campaign to nil. 

The Liberals win the most seats in 92% of simulations:

Unsurprisingly, the most likely scenario according to current data would be a Liberal minority. In the graph below, 95 per cent of all simulations are located in the shaded oval:

Find your home district in this complete list, or use the regional links below:

You may also find the interactive projection map here

More details to come. Stay safe and be kind, dear readers. Have a great week.

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.