Many people I read online in the past week have been expressing desire for certainty in these troubled times. "Please reassure us". "What do the numbers really say?"
"Will Trump get beaten in a George McGovern- or Walter Mondale-type landslide?", or sometimes "Can Trump pull another 2016-style upset?"
The honest and numbers-based answer is highly unsatisfying: "There is a range of possible outcomes."
Since late spring, I have incorporated more than 1,400 polls in the 338Canada U.S. presidential model. While not all polling firms are created equal and we have to use caution with some dubious firms, it is possible to detect some clear tendencies through all the noise. Unless we witness a truly historic polling miss, Joe Biden will win the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election, marking the seventh time a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in the last eight presidential election (the exception being George W. Bush in 2004).
But this does not tell us much, now does it.
Even though national polls do serve some purpose in U.S. presidential election modeling, the state polls carry far more weight in the calculations, since the winner of the presidential election is determined by the Electoral College.
Read this column here.
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.
"Will Trump get beaten in a George McGovern- or Walter Mondale-type landslide?", or sometimes "Can Trump pull another 2016-style upset?"
The honest and numbers-based answer is highly unsatisfying: "There is a range of possible outcomes."
Since late spring, I have incorporated more than 1,400 polls in the 338Canada U.S. presidential model. While not all polling firms are created equal and we have to use caution with some dubious firms, it is possible to detect some clear tendencies through all the noise. Unless we witness a truly historic polling miss, Joe Biden will win the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election, marking the seventh time a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in the last eight presidential election (the exception being George W. Bush in 2004).
But this does not tell us much, now does it.
Even though national polls do serve some purpose in U.S. presidential election modeling, the state polls carry far more weight in the calculations, since the winner of the presidential election is determined by the Electoral College.
Read this column here.
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.