The odds of a Trump win? 19 per cent: 338Canada election forecast

The first presidential debate has not had the desired effect for President Donald Trump according to the data made public since early October. His own COVID-19 infection and hospitalization did not bring about a "sympathy boost" in the polls as many had hypothesized last week. Quite the opposite, it appears Joe Biden has solidified his position as the favourite to win the November 3 Presidential election south of the border. 

The national polls had Biden ahead by an average margin of 6 to 8 points before the debate. As of this writing, the 338Canada presidential forecast has Biden leading by nine points on the national level:

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Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à