Saskatchewan Election Post-Mortem: polls and projections underestimated SKP

The Saskatchewan general election came and went. The Saskatchewan Party, with its fourth straight majority mandate, has entered the "Canadian Political Dynasty" discussion, winning 48 of 61 seats at the Saskatchewan Legislative Assembly, against only 13 seats for the NDP.

As for polls, unlike 2016 when most pollsters nailed the election results almost perfectly (see for yourself here), they collectively underestimated the Saskatchewan Party by an average of five points. See below the final 338Canada popular vote projection and the actual election results (black dots).

The "other" option, meaning the Buffalo Party, the Saskatchewan PC and independent candidates were collectively forecasted correctly at 5 per cent. The Green Party projection was also on the mark at just above two per cent. 

Naturally, since the race was mainly between the SKP and NDP - parties on which the polling miss occurred - it proportionately affected the seat projection. The SKP was projected at an average of 43 seats and the NDP at 18 seats. Both these results are well with the final projection' confidence intervals:

In fact, out of the 61 electoral districts, the winner was correctly called in 55 districts (90%). Here is the breakdown of safe, likely, leaning, and toss up districts:

It is worth noting that among the district were the wrong winner was called, the right winner's result was within the margin of error (moe) in five districts. Only one district was a complete miss (namely Saskatoon Riversdale):

There are always improvements and adjustments to make after an election, but considering how little data had been made available, this Saskatchewan projection should be labelled as a moderate success - with room for improvement. 

The 338Canada's Record So Far page has been updated to include the Saskatchewan election. See the complete numbers here.

The 338Canada pollster ratings page has also been updated. (British Columbia numbers will be added as soon as votes are all counted!)

Want to see how the model fared in your riding? Here is the complete list:

Next up: The 2020 presidential election on Tuesday night

Have a great weekend, dear readers.

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à