338Canada Ontario update - PC still leads, near perfect split between ONDP and OLP

A new Ontario provincial poll was released earlier this week from Abacus Data which measured Doug Ford's PC still ahead in voting intentions, but not by the double-digit margins we had seen over the summer. In fact, the Ontario PC benefits from a near-perfect split between the ONDP and the OLP.

And so, amid the Saskatchewan, British Columbia and American elections all happening simultaneously, why not update the 338Canada Ontario projections?

I will keep this brief. You will find all the Ontario polls on this page. The complete map of the projection my be found here. Pour les Francos-Ontariens, votre page est ici

 The PC's average currently stands at 39 per cent, a full dozen points above the NDP and Liberals which are statistically tied (with 27 per cent and 26 per cent respectively).

That near-perfect split I was referring to just above? It could not be more blatant than in this seat projection:

The PC wins on average 71 seats, 8 more seats than the 63-seat threshold for a majority at Queen's Park. 

Here are the seat probability densities: the higher the bars, the more likely the outcome. Notice how the ONDP curve is much narrower? That's because the ONDP has a higher floor than the Liberals, but a potentially lower ceiling as well. 

You may find your home electoral districts on this page (use the search bar to find your district), or visit the regional pages below:

That's it for today. More the BC election and Saskatchewan election as data comes in. The US presidential page will be updated daily until election day on November 3. Oh, will I pour a cold one or two when this is all over. No more election until Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador next year.... unless the federal government goes down next spring? We'll see!

Have a great weekend, dear readers. 

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.