338Canada federal update: October 4, 2020

Two new federal polls this week: Léger has the Liberals rebounding with a ten-point lead over the Conservatives, and Abacus Data shows a much closer race with a five-point lead for the Liberals. Nanos Research, whose numbers are behind a paywall and therefore are not shown here, has the race even closer still. 

You will find all the federal polls on this page.

Here are this week's 338Canada popular vote projections: 

Here are all the projections since January 1st, 2020:

The Liberals remain in the lead nationally with an average of 36 per cent. The Conservatives stand five points behind at 31 per cent on average. 

Here are the 338Canada seat projections for this week:

With those numbers, the Liberals win the most seats in 94% of simulations:

Find your home district here. The interactive map is available here

This week: we expect more British Columbia updates, U.S. Presidential updates after Tuesday's first debate between Trump and Biden. I'll update the numbers tonight once this weekend's poll are all out, but it seems like Trump has lost ground since last week. 

Oh, and Saskatchewan is now officially in campaign mode. The SK projections will be updated as soon as we have fresh data to sink our teeth in.

Have a great week, dear readers. Be nice, stay safe. 

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.