We expect the last voting intention polls to be released this weekend in New Brunswick, so I will wait until all the numbers are in to publish a final projection. However, from the data that's been made available thus far (see list here), it appears Blaine Higgs' PC is headed towards a majority victory on Monday night.
Over a 100,000 simulations performed by the 338Canada model has the PC winning on average 27.5 seats, just above the 25-seat threshold for a majority at the New Brunswick Legislative Assembly:
The Liberals win 17 seats on average. The Greens, with three seats at dissolution, have room for modest gains with average of 3.7 seats. As for the People's Alliance, their most likely scenario is a single seat - most probably being PANB leader Kris Austin's district of Fredericton-Grand Lake.
Here are the seat probability densities for the Liberals and PC. We notice these two curves barely overlap, meaning for the Liberals to win the most seats, the polls would have to be significantly wrong in the Liberals' favour.
The PC wins the most seats in 99% of all simulations:
Let's see what the last weekend of the campaign has in store for us.
Have a great weekend and stay safe!
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.
Over a 100,000 simulations performed by the 338Canada model has the PC winning on average 27.5 seats, just above the 25-seat threshold for a majority at the New Brunswick Legislative Assembly:
The Liberals win 17 seats on average. The Greens, with three seats at dissolution, have room for modest gains with average of 3.7 seats. As for the People's Alliance, their most likely scenario is a single seat - most probably being PANB leader Kris Austin's district of Fredericton-Grand Lake.
Here are the seat probability densities for the Liberals and PC. We notice these two curves barely overlap, meaning for the Liberals to win the most seats, the polls would have to be significantly wrong in the Liberals' favour.
The PC wins the most seats in 99% of all simulations:
Let's see what the last weekend of the campaign has in store for us.
The interactive map of this projection is available here.
Find your home district in this list of all 49 New Brunswick provincial districts, or use the regional pages below:
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.