The federal numbers are tightening up. Several polls were released in recent days and deserve some analysis.
Here are the top-line numbers compared to the 338Canada average (each poll is compared to the average at the middle point of its field date):
Casual observers of political polls in this country may have become a little confused of late, since it appears there have been strong disagreements in federal polls. However, there is really nothing too shocking about the the numbers on the graph above: Campaign Research has the Liberals a little lower than others, Innovative has the Liberals a bit higher, and Angus Reid has the CPC stronger than other pollsters (which has been documented on many occasions [here and here] by yours truly). But are there earth-shattering disagreements here? I would not say so. I see a healthy spread of dots around the bullseye.
Let's get to this week's federal update. As usual, you may find the complete list of federal polls here. The complete tables of the 338 Canadian Pollster Ratings may be found here.
Here are the 338Canada national vote projections for this week:
The Liberals hold on to the lead with an average of 35 per cent. The Conservatives are within striking distance with 31 per cent. However, it should be stated that the tightening of the race between the main two parties is almost solely due to the Liberals shedding support and not to a recent conservative surge. While the CPC base of roughly 30 per cent of voters in this country still appears rock-solid, the CPC also has had a much lower ceiling than the Liberals. Since the new year, the 338 Conservative average has not gone below 28 per cent, but nether has it surpassed 34 per cent.
With such levels of support, here are the national seat projections:
These seat averages are eerily similar to the 2019 election results. The only significant difference are the British Columbia numbers, where the LPC appears to have gained at the expense of the CPC.
The Liberals hold on to the lead with an average of 35 per cent. The Conservatives are within striking distance with 31 per cent. However, it should be stated that the tightening of the race between the main two parties is almost solely due to the Liberals shedding support and not to a recent conservative surge. While the CPC base of roughly 30 per cent of voters in this country still appears rock-solid, the CPC also has had a much lower ceiling than the Liberals. Since the new year, the 338 Conservative average has not gone below 28 per cent, but nether has it surpassed 34 per cent.
With such levels of support, here are the national seat projections:
These seat averages are eerily similar to the 2019 election results. The only significant difference are the British Columbia numbers, where the LPC appears to have gained at the expense of the CPC.
With such numbers, the Liberals would have a roughly 10-to-1 shot at winning the most seats:
I am going to enjoy the rest of this long weekend, but I'll have more analysis soon.
The complete map of this projection may be found here. Find your home district in the following regional list:
Advance voting has begun in New Brunswick. Only one week left of campaigning, as the general election will be held on Monday, September 14. I invite you to visit the 338 New Brunswick page here for updates.
For those interested, 338Canada now has provincial projections for nine provinces (PEI is still missing, but coming soon!). Find your home province here.
Have a great long weekend and thank you for your support!
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.