Baseline 338Canada projection before CPC elects new leader

I'm getting ready to cover the CPC leadership results tonight for Radio-Canada, so forgive the brevity of this week's projection update. There was a flurry of polls last week, many of which contradictory. This week's averages do not move much, but the uncertainty has increased - in this case, high uncertainty (wide coloured bars in the graphs below) is a feature, not a bug. The data is more volatile, therefore the projection is more uncertain.

As usual, you may find the complete list of federal polls here.

Here are the 338Canada national vote projections:

These levels of support yield the following seat projections - again, notice the wider-than-usual confidence intervals:

With such numbers, the Liberals would have a roughly 9-to-1 shot at winning the most seats. The Conservatives are within striking distance.

The complete map of this projection may be found here. Find your home district in the following regional list:

Finally, a provincial election has been called in New Brunswick last week for September 14. The 338 New Brunswick page can be found here. We await new NB polls this week. 

Have a great Sunday! 

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à