Are Canadian pollsters underestimating the Conservative vote?

Once all the October 2019 federal election votes were counted, the Conservative Party of Canada had won the national popular by one point over the Liberal Party, 34 per cent to 33 per cent -  a margin of roughly 210,000 votes from coast to coast. The Liberals still managed to prevail in the seat count by winning the vote in Canada's two largest provinces, while the Conservatives ran up the score in western provinces, especially Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Comparing the election results to the final polls from Canadians firms, we noticed several firms had correctly called the results - meaning the final numbers were mostly within a reasonable margin of error (or uncertainty) of said polls. 

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à