338Canada federal update - August 9, 2020

Here is a quick 338Canada federal update. I say quick because I will just present the numbers and keep the analysis for another week. My college semester is slowly, but surely getting under way and there's some work to be done and meetings to feign interest to (if you are a colleague: just kidding). Meeting students - which will be mostly online for now - will get under way in two weeks and that I am looking forward to.

One quick note: After adding several provincial projection pages this summer (SK, MB, NB, NS, NL), I have written a sitemap to the request of several readers. See it here. It should be mobile friendly. 

* * *

The Liberals remain in the lead nationally with a modest 5-point advantage over the Conservatives. Notice how the two parties' confidence intervals now overlap significantly. That was not the case one month ago:

Seat-wise, the numbers remain close to the 2019 election results, with the Liberals winning 163 seats on average, roughly a 50-seat advantage over the Conservatives:

The seats projections for the LPC and CPC are now overlapping, although the Liberals still hold the edge:

Stuck at around 30% of voting intentions, the Conservative are at what we presume to be their floor of support. It's a solid floor all parties would love to have, but that alone is not enough to win an election. The CPC should have a new leader in about two weeks, and I am curious to see whether he or she will move the needle.

With the current numbers, the Liberals win the most seats in 19 of 20 simulations. The most likely scenarios is a Liberal-led minority (which probably means no election in the near future):

The interactive map of the projection may be found here. You can find your home districts in this list, or by using the regional links below:

Have a great week!

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.