338Canada federal update - June 7, 2020

The latest federal polls all show the Liberals entering the summer with a healthy lead over the Conservatives, although Canadian pollsters disagree a little on the extent of that lead. Léger, Innovative Research, and Abacus Data all have the LPC leading by double-digits, but the Angus Reid Institute measures a six-point lead instead. However, ARI's "House effect" has been analyzed and documented on several occasions by yours truly.

You may find the complete list of federal polls on this page, as well as links to each poll's report. 

Here are this week's 338Canada popular vote projections compared to the latest federal polls (black dots):

And here are this week's seat projections:

The Liberals remain in majority territory with an average of 192 seats (threshold for a majority is 170 seats).

Here are the seat projection probability densities for the LPC and CPC:

Unfortunately, last Friday I was involved in a biking accident - fortunately not life threatening, but I'm hurting en tabarnak and I am really high on morphine right now (all legally, don't worry). So please pardon the briefness of this piece today because I have to lie down and play video games while I heal. Thanks to the amazing paramedics, nurses and docs that helped me get though this smoothly. And thank you all for your support. 

Find your federal districts here:

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.