338Canada federal update, May 17, 2020... with a quick look at PR

New federal polls were unveiled this week, and last week's trends have been confirmed: the CPC is under-performing badly east of the Manitoba-Ontario border and the Liberals climb once again in Ontario. See all federal polls on this page.

Here are the national popular vote weighted averages for May 17, 2020:

It is impossible to imagine the Liberals staying that high for long, but there is near unanimity in the polls right now that show the LPC leading by double digits, so naturally the seat projection looks like a complete blowout:

Some readers have asked me to revisit a hypothetical (politics-fiction) Proportional Representation projection using current numbers. It is often an interesting exercise, so here it is.

I used the following rules:
  • We divide the country into six regions, which coincide with the usual division of polling in Canada. These regions all retain their current number of districts:
    • Atlantic, 32 districts;
    • Quebec, 78 districts;
    • Ontario, 121 districts;
    • Prairies, 28 districts;
    • Alberta, 34 districts;
    • British Columbia, 42 districts;
  • Seats are allocated to parties proportionally to the popular vote share they win per region, rounded to the closest integer.
  • A minimum threshold of 5 per cent of the popular vote in a given region is needed for a party to receive a share of seats, meaning if a party doesn’t reach 5 per cent within a region, it receives zero seats and its popular vote share will be ignored in the calculation.
  • The three territories—Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut—remain with FPTP.

Here are the seat averages with 95% confidence intervals:

Food for thought!

Have a great week, dear readers. Thank you for supporting 338Canada.

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.