A little over one year from the scheduled 42nd B.C. general election (although it could theoretically be called sooner), John Horgan's NDP remains slightly ahead of the B.C. Liberals according to the most recent data available. Naturally, the current pandemic has the country's pollsters otherwise busy, so voting intentions numbers have been scarce of late.
Last week, Innovative Research Group released its latest federal numbers and other data regarding the handling of covid-19 by the provincial and federal governments in Canada. Among B.C. respondents, net favourables of B.C. major party leaders were all positive (and on the rise): Horgan +56, Olsen +13, Wilkinson +7.
Naturally, the poll's B.C. sample was limited (n = 261 n = 384), so there remains high uncertainty. Here are the updated 338Canada popular vote projections:
The NDP leads the field by an average of five points over the B.C. Liberals - 42 per cent to 37 per cent. The B.C. Greens remain in third place with an average of 18 per cent.
The seat projection gives a slight edge to the NDP, but the confidence intervals of the two leading parties overlap significantly:
With such numbers, the NDP would be a roughly 4-to-1 favourite to win the most seats at the B.C. Legislative Assembly. The odds of a tie result seat-wise is about 5 per cent.
B.C.'s district projections are available on these regional pages:
... or you can find all 87 B.C. district projections on this page.
More updates when fresh data becomes available. Have a great Sunday, dear readers. Stay safe.
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.
Last week, Innovative Research Group released its latest federal numbers and other data regarding the handling of covid-19 by the provincial and federal governments in Canada. Among B.C. respondents, net favourables of B.C. major party leaders were all positive (and on the rise): Horgan +56, Olsen +13, Wilkinson +7.
Naturally, the poll's B.C. sample was limited (
The NDP leads the field by an average of five points over the B.C. Liberals - 42 per cent to 37 per cent. The B.C. Greens remain in third place with an average of 18 per cent.
The seat projection gives a slight edge to the NDP, but the confidence intervals of the two leading parties overlap significantly:
With such numbers, the NDP would be a roughly 4-to-1 favourite to win the most seats at the B.C. Legislative Assembly. The odds of a tie result seat-wise is about 5 per cent.
B.C.'s district projections are available on these regional pages:
- Metro Vancouver, 28 districts;
- Greater Vancouver/Fraser Valley, 21 districts;
- Vancouver Island/Pacific Coast, 16 districts;
- Okanagan/Rockies, 13 districts;
- Northern B.C., 9 districts;
... or you can find all 87 B.C. district projections on this page.
More updates when fresh data becomes available. Have a great Sunday, dear readers. Stay safe.
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.