The odds are against Trump, but they're not as bad as you might think

In 2016, when some political analysts declared Donald Trump had over 95 per cent odds to lose the election to Hilary Clinton, they followed this flawed logic: Trump had to win Florida and North Carolina and Pennsylvania and most of the Midwest states. If we take these events as independent and non-correlated events, yes those long odds against Trump winning the Electoral College would have made sense. But national elections are not a series of uncorrelated events.

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Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à