New horserace numbers have been published this morning, courtesy of The Angus Reid Institute. While the Conservatives remain stable at 34% (roughly the CPC's score last October), the Liberals take a four-point tumble since ARI was last on the field in December (see complete list of federal polls here).
[UPDATE: A Léger/CP poll shows Liberals ahead by two points. Analysis here.]
In this survey, the Liberals fall to 26% nationally:
Now, we must use caution with ARI's horserace numbers: in the past two federal elections, ARI's final polls underestimated the Liberals by as much as four points (ARI had the LPC at 35% in 2015 and 29% in 2019, both times four points below the actual results). I am not discrediting these numbers, but we have to be careful when a firm appears to have a "house effect" for/against any party. Nevertheless, ARI's trend is basically the same as Nanos, with the Liberals losing four points in February
Angus Reid's regional numbers show the Bloc with a healthy 11-point lead in Quebec. With 37%, the Bloc inches closer to the CAQ's 2018 election results that virtually wiped out the Quebec Liberals in the province outside of Montreal (and pushed out the Parti Québécois off the suburbs of Montreal).
Outside Quebec, the Conservatives pull ahead in every region of the country. Most surprising are ARI's Atlantic Canada numbers: 34% for the CPC and 32% for the Liberals. Last October, the LPC won the Atlantic vote with 41%, twelve points ahead of the CPC.
In crucial Ontario, ARI has the Conservatives ahead 35% to 32%. From Manitoba to Alberta, the CPC leads comfortably and the NDP pulls in second place in each province. In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 36%, the NDP is second with 26%. Liberals fall to 22%.
Let's wait and see what other polling firms publish this week to see whether these trends are confirmed. The 338Canada electoral projections will be updated Sunday, as per usual.
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.
[UPDATE: A Léger/CP poll shows Liberals ahead by two points. Analysis here.]
In this survey, the Liberals fall to 26% nationally:
Now, we must use caution with ARI's horserace numbers: in the past two federal elections, ARI's final polls underestimated the Liberals by as much as four points (ARI had the LPC at 35% in 2015 and 29% in 2019, both times four points below the actual results). I am not discrediting these numbers, but we have to be careful when a firm appears to have a "house effect" for/against any party. Nevertheless, ARI's trend is basically the same as Nanos, with the Liberals losing four points in February
Angus Reid's regional numbers show the Bloc with a healthy 11-point lead in Quebec. With 37%, the Bloc inches closer to the CAQ's 2018 election results that virtually wiped out the Quebec Liberals in the province outside of Montreal (and pushed out the Parti Québécois off the suburbs of Montreal).
Outside Quebec, the Conservatives pull ahead in every region of the country. Most surprising are ARI's Atlantic Canada numbers: 34% for the CPC and 32% for the Liberals. Last October, the LPC won the Atlantic vote with 41%, twelve points ahead of the CPC.
In crucial Ontario, ARI has the Conservatives ahead 35% to 32%. From Manitoba to Alberta, the CPC leads comfortably and the NDP pulls in second place in each province. In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 36%, the NDP is second with 26%. Liberals fall to 22%.
Let's wait and see what other polling firms publish this week to see whether these trends are confirmed. The 338Canada electoral projections will be updated Sunday, as per usual.
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.