338Canada Federal Projection update: Léger confirms LPC support is stable

Léger released its latest federal poll last week and measures the LPC in the lead and stable at 33% nationally. The Conservatives, whose leadership race is officially getting under way today, stand at 30%. You can find the Léger poll here, my latest analysis for Maclean's here, and the list of all federal polls here.

With this new data, we update the 338Canada federal projections. Here are the popular vote projections:

[The coloured bars indicate the 95% confidence intervals.]

Here are the national seat projection averages:

With such numbers, the LPC wins the most seats in 84% of all simulations:

The projection map is also been updated. You may find it on this page:

Let me invite you to also visit the 338Canada Quebec and Ontario projections which are updated regularly. The Alberta model is also active, but I am waiting for fresh data to update it. The British Columbia model is in the works.

Have a great week!

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.