One Year of Doug Ford: the PC slides, but the Ontario Conservative Base Remains Strong

Here's is a quick update on the provincial numbers in Ontario. The latest poll have come from Corbett Communication and has a triple-tie on top of voting intentions between the PCO, OLP and ONDP.

All Ontario polls are all listed here. Bookmark this page for future reference as it will be regularly updated.

Since the last update, several adjustments were made to the Ontario model - which remains a work in progress.

For new readers of this blog, know that on its very first run in 2018, the model correctly called the winner in 111 of 124 districts (90%) [see election post-mortem in French]. Of the 13 districts left, 11 had the winner within the confidence intervals. Only two districts were complete misses.

Here is the adjusted vote projection province-wide:

We therefore indeed have a triple-tie on top of voting intentions. With an average of 31.6% (down from 40.6% in the June 2018 elections), Doug Ford's PC is down to its base - a solid one by all standards, but not one that could replicate a 76-seat majority. (The PCO won 31.5% of the vote in the 2014 Ontario general election, and 35.5% in 2011.)

Seat-wise, from the 76 seats it won back in June 2018, the PCO would win on average 44 districts with current numbers. However, we should note that the confidence intervals are - understandably - wide, given the scarcity of data and the closeness of numbers.

The seat projection density probabilities of the PCO and OLP almost overlap each other perfectly:

And if we add in the ONDP (it is the Official Opposition after all), the distributions look even more messy:
I remind readers that these numbers do not have predictive value - the election is in three years! - they are merely a snapshot of the current landscape according to available data.

The interactive map has also been updated. You will find it here.

Find your provincial electoral district in the following list:

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à