Mainstreet Research/iPolitics: LPC 35, CPC 34, NDP 11, GPC 11

Mainstreet Research released its new federal horserace numbers this morning. It was on the field July 30-31, 2019 and it collected voting intentions from 2,463 potential voters using IVR technology.

The poll has the Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied for top place, with 35% and 34% support respectively. The Greens and NDP are tied for third place with 11% apiece.

As is mentioned in the iPolitics article (which includes detailed tables, access it here), although the overall numbers show a tied race for first place, the regional numbers indicate a clear advantage for the Liberals.

First, let's look at Ontario:

There is virtually no path for a conservative victory, even a minority, if the CPC indeed trails by 12 points in Ontario. Nanos' new numbers (behind a paywall, subscribe here) are generally in line with those on Mainstreet in the province.

In Quebec, the numbers have been mostly stable from one poll to another of late. The Liberals lead voting intentions in the province, but not by a dominant margin: the non-liberal vote is splintered between the CPC, the Bloc, Greens and NDP.

In British Columbia, Mainstreet has the Conservatives ahead with 34%, which could translate into net gains seat-wise, but the Liberals hold their own with 26%. The Greens are in third place with 21%, which could be potentially catastrophic for the NDP.

Without revealing Nanos' paywalled numbers, we can say the regional trends are similar to Mainstreet's (although the overall figures are different). We add these numbers to the 338Canada model. Full update this Sunday, as per usual.

Have a great day.

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à