Latest 338Canada Projection Using Proportional Representation

Yes, I know, if Canada chose to switch to a PR electoral model, voting intentions would change significantly - perhaps not overnight, but indeed they would.

But this should not stop us from imagining what seat projections would look like using current numbers, should it? (Here is last night's 338 update.)

The methodology for this exercise is the same used for this Maclean's column I wrote back in May. The threshold for representation is 5% of the vote within at least one of six regions (Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies, Alberta and BC). The three territories keep their respective seat.

Here are the seat projections with 95% confidence intervals:

Unsurprisingly, no party is even close to the 170-seat threshold for a majority.

Of note: together, the NDP and the Greens would win about 90 seats.

The Bloc québécois seat count is very close to the actual projection. The Bloc is currently supported by about one in five Quebec voters, so under PR it would win about one in five Quebec seat.

More analysis to come son.

Have a great week!

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à