Earlier this week, Frank Graves, President and founder of EKOS Research Associates, tweeted partial results from its latest federal polling, which indicated the Liberals had taken a considerable lead in Ontario:
Courtesy of Mr. Graves, here are EKOS' newest and full federal poll numbers. This data was collected from August 21th to 23rd, 2019, using IVR technology. The sample size is n = 1067.
Here are the results from decided and leaning respondents:
These national numbers are in line with recent trends: The Conservatives are leading by a single point (hence, a statistical tie) over the Liberals. The Greens and New Democrats stand way back of the pack and are in battle for third place.
So far, there is nothing unusual with these numbers.
However, the regional figures tell a different story. As it was tweeted by Mr. Graves, Justin Trudeau's Liberals hold a commanding 17-point lead in Ontario (121 seats) according to this poll. As for the Conservatives, their lead in Alberta (34 seats) now surpasses 50 points (!) over their closest rival.
There have been East-West contrast in Canadian politics for more than a century, so this phenomenon is nothing new. However, should these numbers hold until election day, we would see the starkest East-West divide in Canada since the rise of Preston Manning's Reform Party in the early 1990s.
Moreover, with such a lead in Ontario for the Liberals and the NDP polling near the 10 per cent-mark, the LPC could actually outdo its 2015 total of 80 seats in Ontario. Adding to that total 40+ seats in Quebec and maybe 25 in the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals could find themselves awfully close to that 170-seat majority threshold.
The Conservatives would sweep Alberta and Saskatchewan (maybe except Ralph Goodale's district of Regina-Wascana). We would expect B.C. to be fractured along urban-rural lines.
Obviously, we must use caution when analyzing probabilistic sub-samples, for the margin of error is naturally higher than the national numbers. But this new EKOS poll has a sample of 453 respondents in Ontario alone, meaning the sub-sample margin of error around 50% is just below ±5%. The Liberals 17-point lead in the province is therefore significant.
Additionally, we have had four national polls published this week (Léger, Abacus Data, Ipsos and DART), and all of them indicate trouble ahead for Andrew Scheer in Ontario. (See complete list of polls here.)***
(***Edit: even a tie in Ontario would most likely not be enough for the Conservatives to win outright, especially a majority.)
Finally, we should mention that EKOS also measured a significant gender divide: among Canadian women, the Liberals hold a nine-point lead over the Conservatives. Among Canadian men, the Conservatives are in front by as much as thirteen points.
We add all these numbers to the 338Canada model. A full federal update will be ready this afternoon.
Have a great Sunday. If you haven't read them already, here are a few thoughts I wanted to share before the campaign kicks off.
* * *
Here are EKOS' full tables:
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.
3 day Ontario roll as of last nigh— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) August 24, 2019
n=453
45.9%LPC
++++
29.1%CPC
---
----
11.6% NDP
9.2% GP
-
2.5% PPC
-
1.7% Other
4.60 MOE
Courtesy of Mr. Graves, here are EKOS' newest and full federal poll numbers. This data was collected from August 21th to 23rd, 2019, using IVR technology. The sample size is n = 1067.
Here are the results from decided and leaning respondents:
These national numbers are in line with recent trends: The Conservatives are leading by a single point (hence, a statistical tie) over the Liberals. The Greens and New Democrats stand way back of the pack and are in battle for third place.
So far, there is nothing unusual with these numbers.
However, the regional figures tell a different story. As it was tweeted by Mr. Graves, Justin Trudeau's Liberals hold a commanding 17-point lead in Ontario (121 seats) according to this poll. As for the Conservatives, their lead in Alberta (34 seats) now surpasses 50 points (!) over their closest rival.
There have been East-West contrast in Canadian politics for more than a century, so this phenomenon is nothing new. However, should these numbers hold until election day, we would see the starkest East-West divide in Canada since the rise of Preston Manning's Reform Party in the early 1990s.
Moreover, with such a lead in Ontario for the Liberals and the NDP polling near the 10 per cent-mark, the LPC could actually outdo its 2015 total of 80 seats in Ontario. Adding to that total 40+ seats in Quebec and maybe 25 in the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals could find themselves awfully close to that 170-seat majority threshold.
The Conservatives would sweep Alberta and Saskatchewan (maybe except Ralph Goodale's district of Regina-Wascana). We would expect B.C. to be fractured along urban-rural lines.
Obviously, we must use caution when analyzing probabilistic sub-samples, for the margin of error is naturally higher than the national numbers. But this new EKOS poll has a sample of 453 respondents in Ontario alone, meaning the sub-sample margin of error around 50% is just below ±5%. The Liberals 17-point lead in the province is therefore significant.
Additionally, we have had four national polls published this week (Léger, Abacus Data, Ipsos and DART), and all of them indicate trouble ahead for Andrew Scheer in Ontario. (See complete list of polls here.)***
(***Edit: even a tie in Ontario would most likely not be enough for the Conservatives to win outright, especially a majority.)
Finally, we should mention that EKOS also measured a significant gender divide: among Canadian women, the Liberals hold a nine-point lead over the Conservatives. Among Canadian men, the Conservatives are in front by as much as thirteen points.
We add all these numbers to the 338Canada model. A full federal update will be ready this afternoon.
Have a great Sunday. If you haven't read them already, here are a few thoughts I wanted to share before the campaign kicks off.
* * *
Here are EKOS' full tables:
Decided Federal vote intention (includes leaning)
| |||||||||||||||||
Province
|
Gender
|
Age Group
|
Education
| ||||||||||||||
Total
|
BC+Ter
|
AB
|
SK
|
MB
|
ON
|
QC
|
Atl
|
M
|
F
|
<35
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
<HS
|
Collg
|
Uni
| |
FEDVT
| |||||||||||||||||
Weighted Total:
|
1060
|
154
|
119
|
33
|
36
|
402
|
245
|
71
|
502
|
522
|
281
|
259
|
285
|
227
|
230
|
315
|
503
|
Total:
|
1067
|
207
|
94
|
29
|
103
|
453
|
118
|
63
|
519
|
513
|
82
|
172
|
309
|
496
|
221
|
325
|
510
|
Liberal Party
|
33.1%
|
27.4%
-
|
12.1%
----
|
10.1%
|
26.9%
|
45.9%
++++
|
31.7%
|
26.8%
|
30.0%
--
|
36.2%
++
|
31.1%
|
28.5%
|
35.8%
|
36.3%
|
24.8%
---
|
26.9%
---
|
39.8%
++++
|
Conservative Party
|
34.1%
|
31.7%
|
66.9%
++++
|
70.8%
|
41.3%
|
29.1%
---
|
18.3%
----
|
46.3%
++
|
42.5%
++++
|
26.6%
----
|
29.7%
|
31.5%
|
35.4%
|
41.6%
+++
|
40.2%
++
|
38.9%
++
|
28.9%
----
|
New Democratic Party
|
10.4%
|
10.3%
|
3.5%
--
|
11.8%
|
13.3%
|
11.6%
|
12.7%
|
4.7%
|
9.1%
|
11.5%
|
15.1%
+
|
11.2%
|
8.4%
|
6.0%
---
|
6.9%
-
|
11.2%
|
11.5%
|
Green Party
|
11.2%
|
18.3%
++++
|
10.5%
|
4.8%
|
11.6%
|
9.2%
-
|
11.0%
|
12.4%
|
10.2%
|
11.8%
|
10.9%
|
17.1%
+++
|
9.1%
|
8.1%
--
|
7.7%
-
|
11.7%
|
12.6%
|
People's Party
|
3.7%
|
5.6%
|
5.3%
|
2.5%
|
6.2%
|
2.5%
-
|
1.7%
|
9.8%
+++
|
3.3%
|
3.9%
|
4.8%
|
3.2%
|
4.1%
|
2.5%
|
7.2%
+++
|
4.3%
|
1.8%
---
|
Bloc Quebecois
|
5.1%
|
0.0%
----
|
0.0%
--
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
--
|
0.0%
----
|
22.1%
++++
|
0.0%
-
|
4.0%
|
6.5%
++
|
5.7%
|
7.5%
+
|
3.8%
|
3.5%
|
10.9%
++++
|
4.6%
|
2.9%
---
|
Another party not listed here
|
2.4%
|
6.6%
++++
|
1.7%
|
0.0%
|
0.6%
|
1.7%
|
2.6%
|
0.0%
|
0.8%
---
|
3.5%
++
|
2.7%
|
1.1%
|
3.4%
|
1.9%
|
2.2%
|
2.3%
|
2.6%
|
Chi2:
|
-
|
(99.9)
|
99.9
|
99
|
99.9
| ||||||||||||
Margin of Error,around 50%
|
3.00
|
6.81
|
10.11
|
18.20
|
9.66
|
4.60
|
9.02
|
12.35
|
4.30
|
4.33
|
10.82
|
7.47
|
5.57
|
4.40
|
6.59
|
5.44
|
4.34
|
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.