338Canada Federal Update, August 4th, 2019: LPC 152, CPC 146, NDP 22, BQ 12, GPC 6

There were new pieces of data this week: A federal Forum poll in the Toronto Star, a Mainstreet riding poll of the district of Quebec (downtown Quebec City), and Nanos' weekly update (behind a paywall here).

The complete list of federal polls is available here.

Here is the 338Canada Federal Projection Update for August 4th, 2019.

Popular Vote Projection

Here are the projections with 95% confidence intervals:

Seat Projection

We still have a statistical tie in the seat projection this week:

Here are the seat probability densities for the LPC and CPC:

Here is the seat probability density for the NDP:

Here is the seat probability density for the Bloc québécois:

Here is the seat probability density for the Green Party of Canada:

The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:

• The Liberal Party of Canada;
• The Conservative Party of Canada;
• The New Democratic Party;
• The Bloc québécois;
• The Green Party of Canada;
• The People's Party of Canada.

Odds of Winning the Most Seats

According to this week's numbers, the Liberals win the most seats in 56% of simulations, odds barely better than those of a coinflip.

Regional Distribution

The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

• Atlantic Provinces, 32 districts
• Newfoundland and Labrador, 7 districts
• Prince Edward Island, 4 districts
• Nova Scotia, 11 districts
• New Brunswick, 10 districts
• Québec, 78 districts
• Island of Montreal, 18 districts
• Laval & 450, 22 districts
• Quebec City & Chaudière-Appalaches, 11 districts
• Centre of Quebec & Eastern Townships, 8 districts
• Laurentides-Lanaudières-Mauricie, 6 districts
• Western Quebec, 5 districts
• Eastern & Northern Quebec, 8 districts
• Ontario, 121 districts
• Toronto, 25 districts
• GTA-905, 28 districts
• Ottawa, 8 districts
• Eastern Ontario, 8 districts
• Hamilton-Niagara, 12 districts
• Southwestern Ontario, 23 districts
• Centre of Ontario, 7 districts
• Northern Ontario, 10 districts
• Prairies, 28 districts
• Winnipeg, 8 districts
• Rest of Manitoba, 6 districts
• Southern Saskatchewan, 7 districts
• Northern Saskatchewan, 7 districts
• Alberta, 34 districts
• Edmonton, 11 districts
• Calgary, 10 districts
• Northern Alberta, 7 districts
• Southern Alberta, 6 districts
• British Columbia, 42 districts
• Greater Vancouver, 22 districts
• Victoria & Vancouver Island, 7 districts
• East/Rockies, 9 districts
• Northern BC, 4 districts
• Territories, 3 districts
• Yukon
• Northwest Territories
• Nunavut

Have a great weekend!

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Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.