In light of new Forum Poll, Here's a Comparison of Some Other Polls...

A new poll from Forum Research was published in the Toronto Star this morning. It shows the Conservatives ahead by three point nationally over the Liberals and a tied race for third place between the Greens and NDP:

Forum joins the myriad of pollsters that have all measured a tightening race over the course of the summer.

Additionally, it has been documented on several occasions on this blog, Forum has polled the Conservatives much higher than other pollsters in the past two years (see meta-analysis here), so it surely is interesting to see Forum's numbers get closer to the field.

In fact, over the last two years, Forum poll's were consistently way off the 338's polling average. So here's a fun little graph: let's show not the average skew (like it was presented in the aforementioned meta-analysis), but the skew of individual polls from the middle of the poll's field date.

For Forum Research, the results are striking:

By way of comparison, let's look at the same graph of other Canadian pollsters over the same time period.

Here are Nanos' polls (paywalled polls not shown):

Here are Ipsos polls:

And here are Abacus Data's polls:

I could do this all day.

It is even more striking when we put them all together on the same graph:

We add this new Forum poll to the pile and carry on. Federal projections will be updated this Sunday as per usual.

Goodbye July, welcome August.

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Here is Forum's full report.

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à