We add two new polls to the 338 federal model this week: the Nanos weekly update, as well as Abacus Data's fresh new numbers unveiled yesterday.
The model was adjusted to include new independent candidates Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott. Some other minor and routine tweaks were also made to the model.
The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:
According to this week's numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in about six of ten simulations (from a total of 250k simulations performed by the model).
The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:
Only 141 days until the federal election... We should see a flurry of new polls before the start of the summer break.
Have a great weekend!
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.
The model was adjusted to include new independent candidates Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott. Some other minor and routine tweaks were also made to the model.
Seat Projection
The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:
- The Liberal Party of Canada;
- The Conservative Party of Canada;
- The New Democratic Party;
- The Bloc québécois;
- The Green Party of Canada;
- The People's Party of Canada.
Odds of Winning the Most Seats
According to this week's numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in about six of ten simulations (from a total of 250k simulations performed by the model).
Regional Distribution
The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:
- Atlantic Provinces, 32 districts
- Newfoundland and Labrador, 7 districts
- Prince Edward Island, 4 districts
- Nova Scotia, 11 districts
- New Brunswick, 10 districts
- Québec, 78 districts
- Island of Montreal, 18 districts
- Laval & 450, 22 districts
- Quebec City & Chaudière-Appalaches, 11 districts
- Centre of Quebec & Eastern Townships, 8 districts
- Laurentides-Lanaudières-Mauricie, 6 districts
- Western Quebec, 5 districts
- Eastern & Northern Quebec, 8 districts
- Ontario, 121 districts
- Toronto, 25 districts
- GTA-905, 28 districts
- Ottawa, 8 districts
- Eastern Ontario, 8 districts
- Hamilton-Niagara, 12 districts
- Southwestern Ontario, 23 districts
- Centre of Ontario, 7 districts
- Northern Ontario, 10 districts
- Prairies, 28 districts
- Winnipeg, 8 districts
- Rest of Manitoba, 6 districts
- Southern Saskatchewan, 7 districts
- Northern Saskatchewan, 7 districts
- Alberta, 34 districts
- Edmonton, 11 districts
- Calgary, 10 districts
- Northern Alberta, 7 districts
- Southern Alberta, 6 districts
- British Columbia, 42 districts
- Greater Vancouver, 22 districts
- Victoria & Vancouver Island, 7 districts
- East/Rockies, 9 districts
- Northern BC, 4 districts
- Territories, 3 districts
Only 141 days until the federal election... We should see a flurry of new polls before the start of the summer break.
Have a great weekend!
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.