We add these new polls to the 338 federal model this week:
The complete list of federal polls is available here. Here is the 338Canada Federal Projection Update for June 9th 2019.
The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:
According to this week's numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in about six of ten simulations (from a total of 250k simulations performed by the model). The CPC wins a majority of seats in 25% of simulations.
The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:
Only 134 days until the federal election...
Have a great weekend!
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.
- Atlantic Canada poll from Narrative Research (formerly known as Corporate Research Associates [CRA]);
- Two Mainstreet/338Canada district polls, published in Maclean's and L'actualité last week:
- Vancouver Granville (B.C.);
- Markham-Stouffville (ON);
- Yet another Mainstreet district poll (not commissioned by 338) for Oakville (ON);
- The Weekly Nanos Tracker Update.
The complete list of federal polls is available here. Here is the 338Canada Federal Projection Update for June 9th 2019.
Popular Vote Projection
Seat Projection
The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:
- The Liberal Party of Canada;
- The Conservative Party of Canada;
- The New Democratic Party;
- The Bloc québécois;
- The Green Party of Canada;
- The People's Party of Canada.
Odds of Winning the Most Seats
According to this week's numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in about six of ten simulations (from a total of 250k simulations performed by the model). The CPC wins a majority of seats in 25% of simulations.
Regional Distribution
The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:
- Atlantic Provinces, 32 districts
- Newfoundland and Labrador, 7 districts
- Prince Edward Island, 4 districts
- Nova Scotia, 11 districts
- New Brunswick, 10 districts
- Québec, 78 districts
- Island of Montreal, 18 districts
- Laval & 450, 22 districts
- Quebec City & Chaudière-Appalaches, 11 districts
- Centre of Quebec & Eastern Townships, 8 districts
- Laurentides-Lanaudières-Mauricie, 6 districts
- Western Quebec, 5 districts
- Eastern & Northern Quebec, 8 districts
- Ontario, 121 districts
- Toronto, 25 districts
- GTA-905, 28 districts
- Ottawa, 8 districts
- Eastern Ontario, 8 districts
- Hamilton-Niagara, 12 districts
- Southwestern Ontario, 23 districts
- Centre of Ontario, 7 districts
- Northern Ontario, 10 districts
- Prairies, 28 districts
- Winnipeg, 8 districts
- Rest of Manitoba, 6 districts
- Southern Saskatchewan, 7 districts
- Northern Saskatchewan, 7 districts
- Alberta, 34 districts
- Edmonton, 11 districts
- Calgary, 10 districts
- Northern Alberta, 7 districts
- Southern Alberta, 6 districts
- British Columbia, 42 districts
- Greater Vancouver, 22 districts
- Victoria & Vancouver Island, 7 districts
- East/Rockies, 9 districts
- Northern BC, 4 districts
- Territories, 3 districts
Only 134 days until the federal election...
Have a great weekend!
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.