Tightening Race in Alberta According to New Polls from Ipsos and Think HQ

As we enter the last stretch of the Alberta election campaign, new polls from Ipsos/Global News and Think HQ show that the race between Jason Kenney's United Conservative and Nachel Notley's NDP has increasingly tightened - even though both polls project a conservative victory.

First, Think HQ had not been on the field (at least publicly) since late last fall*. Back then, its numbers showed a considerable 15 point lead for the United Conservative. This week however, Think HQ measures the UCP lead at only 6 points. Province wide, the UCP is at 46% (down four points) and the NDP at 40% (up five points). [erratum: think HQ published a poll in mid-March which I had missed. Its numbers were UCP 49% and NDP 38%.]

Nevertheless, those new numbers from Think HQ also show that the UCP would easily win next week's election, because of the high concentration of NDP support in Edmonton, where the NDP is measured at 54%, a crushing 23 point lead over the UCP.

Outside of the Alberta capital, the UCP leads by 16 points in Calgary and by 24 points in the rest of Alberta.

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Secondly, Global News publishes a new Ipsos poll this morning that, although its numbers differ from Think HQ, shows similar tendencies. Ipsos was last on the field in mid-March and had the UCP ahead by 19 points over the NDP.

Three weeks have gone by since, and Ipsos now measured the UCP lead reduced to 8 points only. The UCP loses 6 points and slip to 47% province wide, and the NDP climbs up 4 points and currently stands at 39%

It is also worth noting that Ipsos measures a significant climb for the Alberta Party, from only 4% in March to 10% this week. That number is somewhat higher than the current AP average, but it is still hard to see the AP gaining seats next week - unless there are hyperlocal effects that cannot be detected by provincial polls.

Fortunately, Mainstreet Research has announced it will publish a flurry of riding polls in the coming days for it (paywalled) daily tracker.

These new polls from Think HQ and Ipsos will be added to the 338 Alberta projection tomorrow morning. Stay tuned.

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.