338 Federal Projection Update, April 28th 2019

First, please allow me some personal news: I have received an offer to join Maclean's magazine for the coverage of the federal election. I am over the moon.

What does it mean for this blog? Well, nothing changes. I will continue to update the federal projection every Sunday. The 338Canada website remains independent, but in addition to my columns in French in L'actualité magazine (which you can find here), I will also provide occasional content in English for Maclean's.

And I have you to thank, dear readers of this blog. Your support is very much appreciated.

* * *

We add three new polls to the 338 federal electoral model this week:
  • Innovative Research (Ontario only) shows the Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical tie, with the Grits slightly ahead in Ontario;
  • The Nanos weekly tracker has the Conservatives ahead by 3 points nationally (with the Liberals and CPC tied in Ontario); 
  • Ipsos/Global News measures the CPC four points ahead of the LPC, but that lead was 10 points a month ago, so the race has tightened up significantly according to Ipsos;


Here is the 338 Federal Update for April 28th 2019. The full list of polls can be found on this page.


Popular Vote Projection

The polls published this week showed numbers that were already in line with last week's projection, so this is very little movement in this week's numbers:






Seat Projection

The Conservatives are still projected ahead in the seat projection, but the confidence intervals overlap significantly with those of the Liberals:



Here are the seat projection probability densities for the main parties:










The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats

The tightening of the race is most apparent in the odds to win the most seats. According to this week's numbers, the Conservatives are merely 2-to-1 favourites to win the election.




Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated. Click on the image to visit the map's page.




Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Have a great week.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.