Angus Reid Institute: Conservatives Surge to 7 Point Lead Over Liberals

Published in the middle of my post by-election analysis, a new poll from the Angus Reid Institute went (almost) unnoticed earlier this week.

The poll was conducted from February 21st to 24th by an internet panel of 1,003 Canadian voters and shows a 7 point lead for Andrew Scheer's Conservatives over the Liberals:

Now, as it is the case with every poll that shows results way outside the mean, we have to use caution. Some of the sub-samples of this poll seem quite strange, especially Quebec with the Liberals tied with the Conservatives at 24% each. Every other polling firm has the Liberals way ahead in Quebec, often as much as 20 points ahead.

This poll is either the first to detect a new trend or simply an outlier. We'll have to wait and see.

So we add this poll to the pile. Full projection update on Sunday.

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Here is Angus Reid's full report.

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à