Two New Polls From Léger and Ipsos Give Conservatives Edge Over Grits

It looks like the Jody Wilson-Raybould / SNC-Lavalin story unfolding in Ottawa lit an fire under several pollsters in the country. Two new polls, published in consecutive days, give a slight edge to the Conservatives over the Liberals.

First, Ipsos/Global News published yesterday a poll that showed a seven point swing in favour of the Conservatives since December. Here are the national results from Ipsos:

[*Ipsos does not include the Green Party of Canada nor the People's Party of Canada in its polls.]

Today, The Canadian Press published Léger's new numbers, and they indicate pretty much the same tendencies as Ipsos the day before. Léger measures an 8 points swing, and the Conservatives take the lead (albeit barely) for the first time in a Léger poll since 2015 (according to Jean-Marc Léger himself on Twitter).

My sources tell me more new numbers are expected later this week. This surely will make the next 338 Electoral Update interesting to watch. Tune in Sunday for the update.

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à