Campaign Research Poll: Conservatives Ahead Nationally, BQ surges in Quebec

The polling firm Campaign Research was last on the field in December and it measured a two point lead for the Conservatives over the Liberals (essentially a statistical tie if we consider the poll's uncertainty).

Last night, Campaign published fresh numbers that show the Conservatives taking an outright lead in voting intentions in Canada. Campaign was on the field February 7th to 11th, meaning it was polling Canadians as the Globe & Mail story about Justin Trudeau, Jody Wilson-Raybould and SNC-Lavalin was unfolding.

Here are the results:

The Conservative Party of Canada leads the pack with 37% of support among the poll's 1 590 voter sample. It is the highest score for the CPC in a non-Forum Research poll in months.

Also of note in this poll are the Quebec numbers. In the past weeks, the polling firms Léger, Innovative Reseach, Nanos and now Campaign Research all measured an increase of support for the Bloc québécois in Quebec. For the better part of 2018, the BQ was polling in the low teens and its seat projection hovered around 3-8 seats at best. The arrival of new Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet may have revived the hopes of the pro-independence party.

Here are Campaign's latest Quebec numbers:

These new numbers will be added to the list of polls included in the 338 model. A complete new electoral projection will be published tomorrow, Sunday February 17th. Stay tuned.

Enjoy the weekend!

* * *

Here is the report from Campaign Research.

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à