A new national poll by Mainstreet Research is out this morning and it shows that the country may be becoming more geographically polarized. Indeed, according to these numbers, Liberal support east of Manitoba could be enough to secure a second straight majority for Trudeau and his team.
Overall, the Liberals are stable with 39% (comparison with the last national Mainstreet, which dates back to July 2018), which is roughly the support that lead to an LPC majority in 2015. The Conservatives stand at 35%.
As for the New Democrats, Mainstreet's numbers seem to confirm what other pollsters have measured in the past month: the NDP is in free fall at only 11% nationally according to this poll. With such numbers, the NDP would be lucky to get to official party status (threshold at 12 seats at the House of Commons).
The Greens hold steady at 7% nationally, which would more or less double their 2015 support.
Maxime Bernier's People Party of Canada received 4% of support nationally (first time Mainstreet has the PPC in its public polls). Other pollsters like Nanos measured the PPC at 1%, so we will have to wait and see whether the PPC has really taken off.
Here are the regional results.
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals still hold a double digit lead over the conservatives. The Greens seem to have caught up with the NDP.
In Québec, Liberal domination continues. With such numbers, Trudeau could actually pick up a dozen or so seats in the province. The Conservatives would most likely hold on to their Quebec City seats. The NDP would be wiped out of Québec, with the notable exception of Alexandre Boulerice in Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie.
The Bloc québécois still has no leader, but as you can see below, he will have his work cut for him (of her). The Bloc won 19% of the popular vote in Québec in 2015.
This is the most significant - and surprising - number of this poll: Mainstreet measures a double digit Liberal lead in Ontario, with the LPC gaining five points since July.
Hypothetically, if those number were confirmed by voters next October - double digit Liberal all in Altalntic, Québec AND Ontario - the election would be called before we get to the Central Time Zone.
In the Prairies, the Conservatives hold a steady lead which would hand them most of the region's 28 seats.
In Alberta, the NPD and Liberals would be hard-pressed to win back the seats they won in 2015, with Edmonton-Strathcona being an exception. Alberta looks more and more like a PCC almost) sweep.
In British Columbia, there is a close race at the top between the Liberals and Conservatives, and another close race for third place between the Greens and the NDP.
We can expect more polls later this week (Léger confirmed on Twitter his poll was coming). Once we have this new data, I will update the projection in all 338 districts soon. Stay tuned.
* * *
The poll's full report is available here.
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.
Overall, the Liberals are stable with 39% (comparison with the last national Mainstreet, which dates back to July 2018), which is roughly the support that lead to an LPC majority in 2015. The Conservatives stand at 35%.
As for the New Democrats, Mainstreet's numbers seem to confirm what other pollsters have measured in the past month: the NDP is in free fall at only 11% nationally according to this poll. With such numbers, the NDP would be lucky to get to official party status (threshold at 12 seats at the House of Commons).
The Greens hold steady at 7% nationally, which would more or less double their 2015 support.
Maxime Bernier's People Party of Canada received 4% of support nationally (first time Mainstreet has the PPC in its public polls). Other pollsters like Nanos measured the PPC at 1%, so we will have to wait and see whether the PPC has really taken off.
Here are the regional results.
Atlantic Provinces
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals still hold a double digit lead over the conservatives. The Greens seem to have caught up with the NDP.
Quebec
In Québec, Liberal domination continues. With such numbers, Trudeau could actually pick up a dozen or so seats in the province. The Conservatives would most likely hold on to their Quebec City seats. The NDP would be wiped out of Québec, with the notable exception of Alexandre Boulerice in Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie.
The Bloc québécois still has no leader, but as you can see below, he will have his work cut for him (of her). The Bloc won 19% of the popular vote in Québec in 2015.
Ontario
This is the most significant - and surprising - number of this poll: Mainstreet measures a double digit Liberal lead in Ontario, with the LPC gaining five points since July.
Hypothetically, if those number were confirmed by voters next October - double digit Liberal all in Altalntic, Québec AND Ontario - the election would be called before we get to the Central Time Zone.
Manitoba and Saskatchewan
In the Prairies, the Conservatives hold a steady lead which would hand them most of the region's 28 seats.
Alberta
In Alberta, the NPD and Liberals would be hard-pressed to win back the seats they won in 2015, with Edmonton-Strathcona being an exception. Alberta looks more and more like a PCC almost) sweep.
British Columbia
In British Columbia, there is a close race at the top between the Liberals and Conservatives, and another close race for third place between the Greens and the NDP.
We can expect more polls later this week (Léger confirmed on Twitter his poll was coming). Once we have this new data, I will update the projection in all 338 districts soon. Stay tuned.
* * *
The poll's full report is available here.
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.